Journal of Energy Management and Technology

Journal of Energy Management and Technology

Two Monte Carlo Simulation Methods for the Analysis of Cost and Schedule Risks in Oil and Gas Projects Case Study: The National Iranian Drilling Company

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Saber Shiripour
Amin Moshtagh
Faculty of Engineering, University of Garmsar, Garmsar, Iran
10.22109/jemt.2024.389862.1437
Abstract
The processes related to oil and gas infrastructure are costly and hazardous. So, it requires complex measures to prevent the project overflow in terms of cost and time. This paper proposes two new methods with the capability of use in oil and gas projects, namely a modified risk driver method, and an integrated risk-schedule driver approach under the pressure of probable resources. The goal of the study is to increase the use of cost and schedule risk analysis in the company under study with a focus on incidental costs calculated at the end of the development phase. Using the Primavera Risk Analysis software, we will perform the cost and schedule risk analysis of an oil project at the National Iranian Drilling Company using each one of the proposed modern methods and with the help of consulting engineers and compare their results considering the estimation of incidental costs and the recognition of high-severity risks. Then, we will perform a sensitivity analysis on the activity level in order to enhance the schedule risk analysis of the target company and identify the most significant activities in the project program through a series of measurements. Also, we will perform a numerical analysis considering the integrated cost and cost risks.
Keywords
Cost risk analysis
schedule risk analysis
Monte Carlo Modeling
quantitative risk analysis
Primavera Risk Analysis software
Subjects
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Journal of Energy Management and Technology
Volume 8, Issue 3
Summer 2024
Pages 196-223

  • Receive Date 14 March 2023
  • Revise Date 31 January 2024
  • Accept Date 02 February 2024