The seventh line: a scenario planning strategic framework for Iranian 7th energy progress plan by 2020-2025

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Energy engineering and physics department, Amirkabir university, Tehran, Iran

2 Energy, Amirkabir university of tech., tehran, iran

10.22109/jemt.2020.234795.1243

Abstract

Iran, not just as an oil-exporting country, but also because of its geopolitical position, is one of the world’s most important countries. Since the recent events of the Middle East, the importance of the country has grown globally. Because of this growing importance, the short term future of Iran is significant to be studied. In this study, a descriptive approach has been taken to synthesize the world’s energy portfolio and the global energy balance outlook to provide insights into the development of local energy portfolio scenarios focusing on Iran. The shell company represents two basic scenarios, which are the scramble and blueprint. According to shell scenarios world energy portfolio might be organized in two images in which each image concludes different energy portfolios. Thus, developing energy portfolio scenarios is essential. In this paper, after reviewing the four selected developing countries’ energy portfolios and developed countries, the scenarios of Iran’s energy portfolio in 2020-2025 will be presented. For this purpose, a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods will be used for scenario building.

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